Big picture: Data-centric teams to duke it out in the final

We find ourselves on the biggest day of the Pakistani cricket calendar again. A league that once glittered with promise has, in truth, little more than flickered this year. Wedged in between other T20 tournaments with superior financial muscle, the PSL has been jostled around, but just about maintains its grip on this little sliver of a window in February and March. The players who come might not be as glamorous, the crowds not as plentiful, but this is a genuine sporting product built out of organic support, with fan bases cultivated over the best part of a decade. And they’re not going anywhere.

It’s perhaps surprising this is the first PSL final between Islamabad United and Multan Sultans. This is, in some ways, the PSL’s equivalent to Ajax against Barcelona – a side who blazed a pioneering trail, and another who followed in their wake and ultimately overtook them. United’s progressive, analytical model is the foundation upon which the Sultans built their kingdom, and this is their fourth PSL final since the last time United reached one.

This year, for the most part, the pattern repeated itself through the group stages, with Sultans putting clear daylight between themselves and the rest, and securing themselves a final berth at the first opportunity. While United added Mike Hesson to their coaching staff as they looked for a reset following a lean five years that have seen them fail to make a final, there was little sign things had changed in the group stages.

Still, Shadab Khan’s side got their act together when it mattered most, winning their last four games on the trot to qualify for the knockout stages and then, crucially, they powered through, defying a losing playoff record in the last five years. That this run included a nervy win over the Sultans to keep themselves alive cannot have hurt.

Both sides have ironed out their weaknesses through the long group stages so in some ways, this game, like all others, depends on the level of United’s performance, with the gap between their floor and ceiling higher than any other side in the competition. Sultans, on the other hand, have a ruthlessly consistent streak running through them which makes it exceptionally hard to roll them over, though United will be buoyed by their superior final record.

If the last two finals were a triumph of heart and soul, this is the year of a reversion to the cerebral. The headline is the data nerds and the numbers gurus have their league back, though, of course, to solely attribute Sultans and United’s success to that is to be dismissive of the work each side has put in between the draft and the final. Sultans boast perhaps the most astute white-ball coach and captain in the land in Abdul Rehman and Mohammad Rizwan, while United have plumped for Hesson, protégé of Dean Jones himself. They’ve made a point of attributing part of their success to engaging Cricviz for a more rigorously analytical approach to the way they understand data, and it’s got them to the cusp of glory.

Few can call the final based on how little there is to choose between these two sides at their best. But all can certainly enjoy it.

Form guide

Islamabad United WWWWL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Multan Sultans WWLLW

In the spotlight: Naseem Shah and Usama Mir

If Shaheen Shah Afridi took his time working his way back to full steam after a significant injury, Naseem Shah required no easing in period. This PSL was the first competitive action for the fast bowler in six months, and yet his pace, accuracy and composure have all picked up from where they left off. In a tournament where spinners have dominated, most fast bowlers have found success by taking the pace off. But not Naseem. He understands he is most dangerous when he is running in at full pelt. Only four bowlers have taken more wickets than him, and none at a better economy rate. We all know he’s back, but Naseem will want to make doubly sure with a trophy in hand.

Usama Mir is one big performance away from virtually guaranteeing he finishes with the Player of the Tournament Award. After coming off a difficult time internationally, Mir has been the standout spinner in a tournament where plenty of names might have expected to give him competition. One off-colour performance aside, Sultans have been able to depend on his consistency and quality, keeping the runs in check while making regular inroads. Ten of his 11 games have seen him pick up wickets, and his 23 for the tournament put him five clear of anyone else. That six-wicket haul against Lahore Qalandars may well be the standout, but it’s certainly no aberration for a legspinner at the top of his game this month.

Team news: Hales or Munro for United?

Alex Hales’ lack of form makes him the only real question mark for a United line-up that has won four games on the trot. If Colin Munro has shaken off a leg injury, expect two New Zealanders to open United’s innings.

Islamabad United: 1 Alex Hales/Colin Munro, 2 Martin Guptill, 3 Agha Salman, 4 Shadab Khan (capt), 5 Imad Wasim, 6 Azam Khan (wk), 7 Haider Ali, 8 Faheem Ashraf, 9 Naseem Shah, 10 Hunain Shah, 11 Obed McCoy

Sultans have to wrestle with whether to play Khushdil Shah or Tayyab Tahir in a middle order with a slightly elongated tail. Neither was needed significantly in the one game apiece that they started, but fine margins in a final – as Sultans know better than anyone – may make all the difference.

Multan Sultans: 1 Yasir Khan, 2 Mohammad Rizwan (capt and wk), 3 Usman Khan, 4 Johnson Charles, 5 Iftikhar Ahmed, 6 Tayyab Tahir/Khushdil Shah, 7 Chris Jordan, 8 David Willey, 9 Usama Mir, 10 Mohammad Ali, 11 Abbas Afridi

Pitch and conditions

The game starts late as all Ramzan games have. Surfaces have tended to slow down slightly as the night wears on, but not by enough to affect decision-making at the toss. The temperature is rising as spring kicks in, but Monday evening should be cool and pleasant, with no rain expected.

Stats and trivia

• Of the five maiden overs bowled this PSL, Naseem has delivered two of them
• While Sultans have reached three finals to Islamabad United’s two, United have a superior record in the trophy match. They have won each of their two finals, with Sultans triumphing once in three such matches